"In coming days, you will see a lot of rationalization and spin from Doomer/Yuddite/Less Wrong/EA types about how China is really not developing AI that fast, or how it can be stopped if only they can somehow be blocked from US technology, or how China is really about to sign an international..."
...agreement banning AI R&D, or how Xi's speech today (which more or less said "we're continuing to develop AI as quickly as we can and Chinese firms are going to continue releasing open source models" was actually very AI x-risk oriented somehow. All of this is rationalization, and poor rationalization. As the attached screenshot shows, although the Doomer community does have a very poor record of prediction on most topics, on this particular topic, they've been almost completely wrong every time. If your model of the world fails to predict events, it is not reality that is at fault. It is your model. If you don't change your mind when your beliefs are disproved by reality, it is again not reality that is at fault, it is you. Hat tip to @Dan_Jeffries1 and (indirectly) @DrTechlash — Perry E. Metzger
Source: https://x.com/perrymetzger/status/2078166727100133433