SUMMARYSteve Yegge argues that public access to frontier AI may soon plateau as governments tighten controls and closed labs keep advancing toward ASI behind the scenes. He expects a few more model improvements over the next year, but believes open-source systems will struggle to keep up if the best proprietary models become restricted.
https://steve-yegge.medium.com/the-flat-curve-society-36c8b01eb33b
I just read this article by Steve Yegge (creator of gas town, author of The Book on vibe coding), and he seems to believe that we’re entering a bit of an AI winter… for the public. He thinks that that we’ll get access to a couple more levels of model over the next year or so, and then that’s it. They’ll be too powerful and the government will lock them down.
However, Yegge says he still expects progress to occur - we just won’t know about it. Labs will continue on the exponential towards ASI, and they will get there one day, but for us in the public Fable is pretty close to marking the end of our access to high quality models.
He also addresses what I’m sure you all want to mention - open source models. The current best OSS models are almost certainly distilled from the best closed source models. As access to the very best models gets locked down, OSS models will struggle to match the progress of labs’ internal models.
As we all lose access to Fable (at least the non-millionaires among us), I’m kind of worried that this is the path we’re heading down. What do you all think?