SUMMARYAI has entered a national-security-driven consolidation phase and that public research will likely shrink as major companies keep breakthroughs private. It frames the race to AGI as an arms race that could determine the future balance of power in the 21st century.
Texts like the one attached above are just that. Fearmongering. There's no putting the genie back in the bottle and I hope most governments know this. No, this is about consolidation... as was discussed in r/singularity pre-2022, things were always going to come to a head and this is it. AI is national security now... so access naturally is going to be limited. Naturally...
Of course this doesn't mean AI development suddenly stops, far from that. When ChatGPT came out in 2023 OpenAI utilized public research published by Deepmind to develop their product, when it was their turn they didn't play ball, as in, they didn't release anything. So Google just stopped releasing important breakthroughs. So did Anthropic (which was a nobody back then). What's going to hjappen now is that on a macro scale. Public AI research might as well disappear. But that doesn't mean it stopped, it just went private because we're looking at an arms race to get AGI. It's the real deal. Who gets AGI first might just as well put the 21st century in the bag. Opinions of course are welcome.